Monday, May 17, 2010

2010 Bowmania Is Upon Us

Not since 2001 Upper Deck and the coveted RC's of Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki has an early season release seen this much hype. There are currently 17,316 listings on eBay for "2010 Bowman" and by the time this post is published that number will probably grow. Fueled by the anxiously awaited debut of Stephen Strasburg collectors are eating this product up by the close load as evidenced by the numerous breaks on the Blowout message boards and the exorbitant prices for Hobby ($85) and Jumbo boxes ($160+). Autographs drop at 3 per box for Jumbos and the prices realized on eBay for Strasburg, Starlin Castro, Dustin Ackley and other prospects 1st autos and refractors are outrageous.

2010 Bowman Rookie Superfractor AUTO Dustin Ackley 1/1 . . . . $3,495

2010 Bowman is prospect speculation at its finest and I understand that. There is a lot of potential money to be made. However, only a week after its release quite a few of the "gold mine" pulls are already accounted for and yet there has been no drop in the product's price. This equates more to supply and demand then it does common sense as I have long wondered that now through social media and the ability to keep track of a particular products content and its pulls, shouldn't the price theoretically go down with each major pull that disappears from remaining unopened product? If I go buy a jumbo box today I know for a fact that the Superfractor 1/1 Auto for Strasburg is gone. How do I know? Because of this handy dandy Superfractor Tracker.

Now, I am not so naive as to not understand the simple basics of Econ 101, but what I do find interesting is collectors seemingly disregard for this age old principal. If only 33% of prospective box buyers were to hold off a week or two, wouldn't it would effect the supply/demand equation enough to result in a drop in price? However, I also realize that in the mind of the collector is the fear that by waiting, the product will sell out.

Despite the aggressive pursuit of this product I have yet to see it at retail which isn't necessarily surprising. It seems the manufacturers and distributors are making an attempt to provide brick and mortar retailers a cushion so collectors go there first. Once it does hit retail and with drastically different odds, I think it's fair to say the bulk of the product's content will have already been pulled.

Prices for singles rise sharply in the first 48 hours of a product's release and then taper with occasional spikes as new "money hits" are pulled. The prices realized this past week will not be sustained over the long-term and adds another factor in the "gotta have it NOW" mentality of Bowman collectors, prospectors, and speculators. It's amazing to think that all of the prices realized to date, have been for raw cards. Can you imagine what's going to happen when cards sent in for grading start hitting the secondary market?

I would love to be in a financial position to bust a case of Jumbo for the sheer sake of flipping it. But as a collector, I am still amazed at what you could have in exchange for the money paid by some people for cards of unproven players with an above average chance of actually never amounting to more than a mere "cup of coffee" in The Show.
My $50K eBay spree from a few weeks ago could have landed me single signed balls from Mantle and Williams, with money left over when compared to what the Ackley Superfractor went for.


Anonymous said...

I would like to point out that the HOLY GRAIL of 2010 Bowman has yet to see the light of eBay - the elusive Strasburg Bowman Red Autograph 1/1, found only in Jumbo packs. Once this has been pulled, I wouldn't be surprised if wax prices taper off, if only a bit. - J.P.

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